The Philippines is preparing for a potential second legal case against Beijing regarding the South China Sea, according to a security analyst based in the Philippines. Rommel Banlaoi, president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies, stated on Saturday that the country is considering filing another case and that authorities are already preparing the necessary legal documentation.
Speaking at a South China Sea symposium in Sanya, Banlaoi addressed whether President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr might take Beijing back to court over its maritime claims. He noted that while the Philippines is considering the move, the president must give the green signal to proceed.
Banlaoi suggested that Manila is likely to hold off on the filing for now because the Philippines is the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) this year, and discussions between the bloc and Beijing regarding a South China Sea code of conduct are still ongoing. Singapore is scheduled to take over the Asean chairmanship next year.
The potential new case could involve seeking compensation for economic losses and environmental destruction, as well as addressing alleged violations of sovereign rights and other breaches of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Banlaoi stated that Manila is currently gathering and preserving evidence for these purposes.
However, Banlaoi identified establishing jurisdiction as the primary challenge. He noted that Philippine legal experts are still debating which international forum is most appropriate for the dispute. The government will only proceed to draft a formal statement of claim once these procedural and jurisdictional hurdles are cleared.
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitration ruling at The Hague, which invalidated key elements of Beijing’s maritime claims. Beijing did not participate in that 2013-initiated case and does not recognize the verdict, which it has described as “illegal”.
Tensions between the two nations have escalated sharply in recent years due to frequent clashes between coastguards and vessels. These incidents have raised fears of a wider conflict that could draw in the US, a treaty ally to the Philippines. The two sides have also frequently traded blame over coral loss and environmental harm in the contested waters.
