Analysts say the Democrat expected to become US House speaker has met Taiwan’s former leader and backed legislation supporting the island yet is unlikely to follow Nancy Pelosi’s example in pursuing high-profile engagement with Taipei. Although Jeffries has met with Taiwan’s former leader and backed supportive legislation, experts believe his record indicates a more restrained approach.
Hakeem Jeffries announced his bid for the speakership on Wednesday after Democrats won a majority of seats in the US midterm elections. He is poised to officially become House speaker following a floor vote on the first day of the new Congress in January.
In March 2023, Jeffries met then-Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen in New York during her transit through the United States. He described their discussion at the time as “very productive”, covering mutual security and economic interests, alongside a shared commitment to democracy and freedom. Jeffries also voted in favour of the Protect Taiwan Act, which passed the House in February and seeks to restrict Beijing’s participation in certain international financial institutions in response to potential threats to Taiwan.
However, analysts said Jeffries’ record did not necessarily suggest he would emulate Pelosi, the last Democratic speaker of the House, whose visit to Taiwan in August 2022 prompted large-scale People’s Liberation Army military exercises around the island and further strained China-US relations. Jeffries was elected to succeed Pelosi after she stepped down from leadership following the Democratic Party’s loss of the House in November 2022.
Xin Qiang, a professor and deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for American Studies, called Pelosi’s high-profile trip to Taiwan “an exception rather than a precedent that future House leaders would necessarily follow”. Xin said the visit drew criticism within the US political establishment for risking escalation with Beijing and potentially triggering armed conflict, adding that American politicians were subsequently likely to “show greater caution and restraint regarding Taiwan visits”. Xin said that a speaker’s individual stance could affect how congressional support for Taiwan was expressed. “Support for Taiwan is essentially a bipartisan consensus in Congress,” he said. “But individual factors always play a role. A more cautious and restrained speaker could have a positive influence. By contrast, an extreme and impulsive speaker could seriously damage US-China relations, as Pelosi did.” Xin added that with Jeffries managing the legislative agenda and maintaining conventional measures supporting Taiwan, he might hesitate to advance provocative proposals.
An international relations expert who declined to be named, citing the sensitivity of the matter, said Jeffries’ legislative record and public remarks showed that he was a “relatively rational and moderate politician” with less personal attachment to Taiwan and less ideological hostility towards Beijing than Pelosi, making an official visit to the island highly unlikely.
Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said Pelosi’s visit was shaped by political conditions at that moment alongside personal preference. Beijing’s attempts to lobby the Joe Biden administration against her trip inflamed domestic sensitivities over the separation of powers, prompting Congress to signal independence from the executive branch, Chong said. “There does not seem to be anything on the cards about a Jeffries visit to Taiwan at this point in time,” he added. Still, a high-profile visit could materialise if lawmakers sought to send an assertive signal to Beijing, the White House or regional partners, Chong said. He expected broad policy continuity, calling defence support for Taiwan one of Washington’s few durable bipartisan consensus issues.
Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, agreed, saying there was strong bipartisan support for Taiwan in Congress. Thompson argued that a Democratic-controlled Congress would be more supportive of Taiwan and more critical of the Donald Trump administration’s reluctance to call out Beijing on issues ranging from human rights to tech export controls. Referring to long-stalled arms sales to the island, he said: “I anticipate Congress will encourage the administration to notify it of the intent to sell the US$14 billion in items that have already processed.”
