Key Takeaways
- The federal government has decided to import one million tonnes of wheat.
- This decision follows extensive deliberations and acknowledges a supply-demand gap.
- Wheat prices have been steadily rising, with the national average reaching Rs. 4,611 per 40kg.
The federal government has taken decisive action to address the ongoing wheat shortage by approving the import of one million tonnes of wheat, according to a statement from Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain. This move comes in response to demands from provincial governments and aims to stabilize prices across Pakistan.
Wheat prices have been on an upward trajectory, with official data showing that the average price reached Rs. 4,611 per 40kg (Rs. 115 per kg) for the first week of July 2026, up from Rs. 4,516 a week earlier. Province-wise, prices vary significantly: Punjab at Rs. 4,423, Sindh at Rs. 4,625, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at Rs. 5,100, and Balochistan at Rs. 4,800 per 40kg.
The shortfall in wheat supply was flagged as early as April 29, 2026, with a projected deficit of 1.2 million tonnes for the 2026-27 marketing year based on initial crop estimates during the early harvesting phase. However, Majid Abdullah, President of the Progressive Flour Millers Group (PFMG), has projected an even larger shortfall of 2.5 million tonnes.
According to Abdullah, Punjab’s production stands at approximately 19.5 million tonnes with a marketable surplus of 30 per cent or 5.85 million tonnes. Against this, the total market size is estimated at 4.3 million tonnes, including 1.5 million tonnes for flour mills, 0.5 million tonnes held by aggregators, 0.5 million tonnes for seed companies, 0.3 million tonnes for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and 1.5 million tonnes for prior three months’ consumption. This leaves a shortfall of 2.5 million tonnes in Punjab alone.
A separate official assessment estimates Pakistan’s total wheat demand at 34.33 million tonnes, comprising 30.83 million tonnes for human consumption, 1.5 million tonnes for feed and seed, and 2.0 million tonnes for strategic reserves. Total wheat availability is estimated at 31.78 million tonnes, including 29.6 million tonnes from domestic production and a carryover stock of 2.0 million tonnes from the previous season, leaving a deficit of approximately 2.55 million tonnes.
The per capita consumption used for this projection stands at 115kg per annum. The government’s decision to import one million tonnes of wheat is seen as a critical step in mitigating price increases and ensuring food security for Pakistan’s population of 268.13 million people, with an estimated total demand of 34.33 million tonnes.
Stakeholders are urging prompt and sustained policy intervention to prevent further price escalation in the months ahead. The import decision is expected to help stabilize wheat and flour prices across the country, providing relief to consumers and businesses alike.
This will help stabilize wheat and flour prices across the country.
Rana Tanveer Hussain, Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research
