Key Takeaways
- Political instability and ownership gaps have hindered the implementation of Pakistan’s National Security Policy (NSP).
- Protectionist trade policies and a hostile neighbourhood have limited Pakistan’s export capacity.
- The NSP’s geo-economic vision has not materialised due to structural and geopolitical constraints.
Pakistan’s first-ever National Security Policy (NSP), introduced in 2022, aimed to shift the country’s focus towards economic security and a citizen-centric geo-economic future. However, the policy has failed to achieve its objectives, primarily due to political instability and a lack of structural continuity.
The NSP was unveiled by the PTI government in January 2022, marking a significant shift towards economic security. However, just months later, the PTI government was ousted, and the strategic document was sidelined. Subsequent administrations have struggled with a ‘ownership gap’, viewing the policy with suspicion and prioritising immediate political survival over long-term economic goals.
A viable geo-economic vision requires liberalised trade policies, open borders, and a competitive export sector. However, Pakistan’s trade regime remains protectionist, with high tariffs on intermediate inputs averaging eight per cent, which is twice as high as in India and Bangladesh. This protectionism has limited Pakistan’s export capacity, despite the NSP’s promise of boosting exports. Total exports, which reached a record $39.52 billion, have since contracted due to political instability and soaring energy tariffs.
The NSP’s regional assumptions have also faced significant challenges. At the time of its introduction, there was cautious optimism about improved relations with India, following a 2021 understanding to strictly observe a ceasefire along the Line of Control. However, New Delhi’s refusal to engage in structural dialogue and its decision to hold the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance have effectively frozen any hopes for normalisation. The intense four-day armed hostilities in May 2025 further dampened any prospects for improved relations.
The NSP’s failure to achieve its goals highlights the complex interplay of political, economic, and geopolitical factors in Pakistan. The policy’s emphasis on economic security and geo-economic integration has been overshadowed by political instability and structural constraints. The subsequent administrations have found it challenging to maintain the NSP’s vision, with immediate political and fiscal priorities taking precedence.
The NSP’s failure underscores the need for a more robust and sustained approach to economic security. While the policy was well-intentioned, its implementation has been hampered by political discontinuity, protectionist trade policies, and a hostile neighbourhood. The future of Pakistan’s economic security will depend on addressing these challenges and fostering a more stable and cooperative regional environment.
