Proposed 12-province structure likely to begin after 2029 elections

Sources familiar with discussions told The News on Monday that the proposed restructuring of the country into 12 provinces would likely only be implemented after the 2029 general elections, provided it is achieved through constitutional means.

While constitutional legislation for the restructuring is under consideration for next year, sources stated that existing provincial governments and assemblies would continue to function until the next general elections even if the required amendments are passed.

Under the proposal, the current four provinces would be expanded to 12. Specifically, Punjab could be divided into four provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan into three each, and Sindh into two.

Sources identified three critical issues facing the transition: the distribution of resources under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, the sharing of water resources, and the settlement of financial liabilities.

Regarding the NFC Award, the creation of eight additional provinces raises questions about how the existing provincial share of the federal divisible pool—currently distributed based on population, poverty, backwardness, and revenue generation—would be redistributed. It remains undecided whether the current formula would continue or if a revised mechanism would be needed for the new provinces.

Water distribution presents a second major challenge. Current arrangements are governed by the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. Sources noted that new provinces would require a fresh understanding of how these allocations would be divided, which could be sensitive in areas with high agricultural dependence and existing disagreements over irrigation. A mechanism is needed to decide if existing allocations remain intact and are divided among successor units or if a broader revision is required.

The third challenge involves settling financial liabilities between the federal government and existing provinces. Restructuring would require a mechanism to determine how outstanding claims, transfers, loans, and fiscal obligations would be distributed. This includes deciding which successor province assumes existing debts, how federal loans are apportioned, and how outstanding payments owed by the Centre would be transferred.

Sources indicated that these issues will likely require extensive consultations among the federal government, provincial governments, and other stakeholders before the restructuring can move toward implementation.