Vice President JD Vance sent shockwaves through Washington on Wednesday by blaming his party's midterm defeat squarely on the Iran war. The move was widely interpreted as an effort to distance himself from President Donald Trump ahead of a potential 2028 White House run.
In a 600-word statement on X, Vance acknowledged that Trump's 2024 voters had deserted Republicans in the midterm election. "The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote, adding, "The president himself said so last night."
While Vance has repeatedly backed the conflict since the US and Israel attacked Tehran in February, he has reportedly expressed opposition in private meetings with administration officials. However, those disagreements had been kept out of the public eye until now.
Hours after the party was handed a bruising election defeat, Vance stated that the decision to go to war was a clear political mistake. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest," Vance said.
In a surprising turn, Trump—who typically demands steadfast loyalty—agreed with Vance that the midterms were "largely" decided by the war. Trump added that he would "do it again" if given the same choices. When asked about Vance's post, Trump told reporters, "I know how he feels about it. I think it was -- I think it was fine," and noted, "I knew that when I went in, and we stopped them from having a nuclear weapon, and they will never have a nuclear weapon."
Daniel Byman, a foreign policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Vance's statement seemed like "a way of separating himself from Trump." Byman added that drawing contrasts with Trump will be a delicate balancing act if Vance seeks the presidency.
Republican strategist Ashley Davis told the BBC that Vance "put his toe in the water to see what he's going to do." In his post, Vance did not mention Trump by name and attributed much of his analysis to unnamed pollsters.
Vance also offered a four-point gameplan to win back voters: "1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel."
According to The New York Times, Vance showed the message to Trump before posting it online. While Vance is expected to run in 2028, he has not made an official decision and aides insist he is still mulling it over. Trump has praised Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on several occasions but has not said when, or if, he would make an endorsement.
