Japan is considering a significant increase in its five-year defence spending, potentially reaching as much as 80 trillion yen (US$508 billion), according to media reports in Japan. This would represent nearly double the current programme, which sits at roughly 43 trillion yen.
The Japan defence ministry had estimated the cost at about 80 trillion yen, which is around 1.8 times the present plan, the Sankei Shimbun reported on Monday, citing government officials. However, negotiations were expected to aim for the upper 70 trillion yen range, with the total potentially reduced after scrutiny of procurement plans. The reported increase remains subject to government negotiations as Japan prepares to revise its three key national security documents by the end of the year.
A preliminary draft reported by Kyodo News in September projected Tokyo acquiring about 52,000 unmanned systems. This figure includes some 10,000 long-range drones for land strikes and 1,300 for anti-ship attacks.
Observers said such a build-up could strengthen Japan’s ability to deter or respond to People’s Liberation Army operations around Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as withstand attacks and sustain prolonged operations in a regional conflict.
Misato Matsuoka, an associate professor at Teikyo University, said the reported increase would represent “a significant acceleration of the trajectory set in motion in 2022, rather than an entirely new direction.” She noted that in December 2022, Japan adopted a major security policy overhaul that included plans to acquire counterstrike capabilities and increase five-year defence spending by nearly 60 per cent, while targeting defence-related expenditure of 2 per cent of gross domestic product by the 2027 financial year.
Matsuoka said that for Beijing, the bigger concern was likely to be not only the capabilities developed by Tokyo but also “how they are integrated into the US-led regional security architecture.” She noted that expanded long-range missiles, surveillance and military infrastructure on Japan’s southwestern islands could make Beijing’s operations around Taiwan more difficult. She added that the proximity of Japan’s southwestern islands to Taiwan means military facilities there could become strategically significant even if Tokyo did not initially intend to join a conflict. Furthermore, she noted that stronger surveillance could also improve Japan’s response to Chinese activity around the disputed Senkaku Islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyus.
