Europe welcomed a Democratic landslide in the US midterm elections on Wednesday, providing a reprieve after nearly two years of a transatlantic alliance that verged on collapse. The Democratic Party swept both chambers of the US Congress, delivering a "crushing rebuke" of President Donald Trump’s two-year record.
For Europe, Trump’s tenure has been defined by a shattering of the post-war order and deep schisms within the Western coalition. The president has pulled US support for Ukraine, moved closer to Russia, and threatened to seize the Danish territory of Greenland. Furthermore, he has made it clear that Europe must pay for its own defense, leaving the future of Nato uncertain.
Economic tensions have also mounted. Trade frictions have resulted in tariffs on EU goods, while Trump has attempted to force Brussels to abandon green and digital laws affecting US companies. Additionally, the European Union has been forced to import €127 billion (US$143 billion) in additional fossil fuels due to Trump’s war against Iran launched with Israel this year. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated on Tuesday that this was done "without a single molecule of energy in addition," noting the sum is equivalent to roughly €281 per EU resident, or 67 per cent of the bloc’s entire annual budget.
Despite the election results, the reaction in Europe was muted. An EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated, “We kind of lost hope in the US being the saviour … the fact that pretty much everyone doesn’t think it’s going to move the needle much says a lot about the EU-US relationship.”
Observers warned that a wounded Trump could make life worse for Europe. Max Bergmann, a Europe analyst at Washington’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, noted that "lame-duck presidents in their final two years shift their focus to foreign policy." He stated that the Trump administration has a radical approach to disrupt the existing world order and he expects "a lot of collisions with Europe ahead."
The anonymous diplomat agreed that Trump might become more aggressive, saying, “He’s going to have a lot of free time, and because of this he’s going to lash out more … so I don’t think that’s good for us because obviously Europe is one of his main targets. Trade, foreign policy is where he still has a bit of clout.”
Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive at the European Policy Centre, warned that Trump “could become more dangerous” as he may seek scapegoats at home and abroad. Zuleeg suggested that while economic realities might limit confrontation, Europe and Ukraine must prepare for the possibility of an accommodation with Russia based on the diesel deal.
However, some experts cautioned that the Democratic sweep does not signal a fundamental change in US foreign policy. Paul Verhagen, a senior fellow at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, argued that the "blue tsunami" was driven by domestic concerns and a "rejection of the price at the pump" rather than a rejection of Trump’s foreign policy. He noted that Trump retains control of US foreign policy and veto power.
J.C. Lintzenich, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, wrote that pressure for Europe to carry more of its defense burden and trade disputes will continue. He added that while Congressional support may make assistance to Ukraine more durable, appropriations must still overcome production, approval, and delivery hurdles.
The anonymous diplomat expressed a worst-case scenario regarding Russia, stating, “I’m really worried about Russia. I’m worried he’s going to start reopening business with Russia, not taking into account at all European interests.”
