Economists at an international conference warned that artificial intelligence and shifting labor policies in Gulf states could affect up to seven out of 10 jobs traditionally held by migrant workers.
Speaking at the two-day Fourth International Conference, "Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia," Dr. Nasir Iqbal of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) stated that 2026 has "fundamentally reshaped the migration landscape." He noted that ongoing conflict and the rapid rise of AI have changed how Gulf states approach migrant labor, with a greater emphasis now being placed on selecting workers based on skills, occupations, and migration pathways.
Dr. Iqbal added that sending countries are becoming active partners in preparing and screening workers, a move he said would benefit both sides. However, he cautioned that while remittances remain a dominant topic of debate, current inflows might be masking a "future decline in overseas employment opportunities."
Other experts at the conference, organized by the Centre on International Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD) at the Lahore School of Economics, highlighted specific regional trends. Francoise De Bel-Air, Senior Fellow at the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population (GLMM) programme, stated that while opportunities are growing for skilled professionals in North America, Europe, and the Gulf, traditional routes for low- and semi-skilled workers are facing "increasing restrictions."
Froilan Malit, an Asia-Middle East labour migration specialist, argued that the Asia-Gulf corridor remains the most resilient labour migration system in the Global South. He suggested that skill recognition systems between regions require further study and should be integrated into foreign policy frameworks for South-South labour migration.
Regarding European influences, Marco Mogiani of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development said evolving European Union policies—including stricter border controls, biometric surveillance and return measures—had influenced migration patterns from Pakistan and Bangladesh. The discussion also touched on how the anti-smuggling and migration policies of those two countries affect routes, departures, and migrant casualties.
Fareeha Zafar of the Lahore School of Economics identified the main drivers of irregular migration from Asia as political instability, economic insecurity, unemployment, and limited access to quality education. She also noted the gender aspects of these issues, stating that women face greater vulnerabilities, including the risk of human trafficking, along irregular transit routes.
The conference also featured country-specific studies:
Richa Shivakoti reported that Nepal remains heavily dependent on labor migration, with remittances contributing about 33% of its GDP. She attributed this to unemployment, political and economic uncertainty, climate-related disasters, and a growing culture of migration among the youth.
Maruja MB Asis noted that migration from the Philippines is driven by limited decent jobs at home and steady overseas demand. She highlighted the "feminisation and diversification" of labor migration and identified an ageing population, declining fertility, and digitalisation as emerging factors.
The speakers concluded that Pakistan's migration shows both continuity and change, with traditional labor migration to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states continuing alongside a rise in skilled migration to Western countries. They cited economic instability, pro-migration government policy, and remittances as key drivers, while identifying skill mismatches and geopolitical conflicts as primary challenges. The panel suggested that migration pressures in countries like Pakistan and Nepal are likely to stay high due to demographic shifts and limited domestic opportunities.
