Key Takeaways
- Suparco has raised concerns over uncontrolled urban growth along a natural stream near Gilgit.
- The number of unfrozen glacial lakes increased from 24 to 40 in just two weeks, raising Glof risks.
- Land-use changes have reduced the stream's capacity to safely accommodate high-magnitude flows.
Suparco has issued a warning over unchecked urban expansion along a natural glacial lake-fed stream near Gilgit city, highlighting the potential for severe flooding and debris flows during the monsoon season.
According to satellite imagery, the number of unfrozen lakes in the region increased from 24 to 40 in just two weeks, indicating accelerated seasonal melting due to rising summer temperatures. This has raised concerns over the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (Glofs).
The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission noted that urban growth has progressively encroached into the natural flood conveyance zone and alluvial fan of the stream, significantly reducing its capacity to safely accommodate high-magnitude flows. This land-use change has altered natural drainage patterns and increased exposure to flood hazards.
Suparco stated that in the event of a Glof or extreme precipitation-driven flow, the confined channel and obstructed floodplain could result in sudden overbank flooding, debris flows, and widespread destruction. The scale of potential damage had been substantially amplified by human negligence, weak enforcement of land-use regulations, and the absence of risk-informed urban planning at the government level.
Despite clear evidence of hazard-prone zones identifiable through satellite imagery and geomorphological indicators, construction activities have continued unchecked, according to Suparco. The space agency emphasized that such practices pose a significant threat to lives, property, and livestock in the region.
Suparco is regularly monitoring the status of potentially dangerous glacial lakes using satellite imagery to support early warning and preparedness for Glof hazards. The monitoring results are shared with relevant stakeholders, including the Ministry of Climate Change’s Technical Committee on Glof Monitoring.
The present assessment was based on satellite imagery acquired on June 16. Suparco said all identified lakes had been mapped on the latest available satellite imagery to estimate their surface area and determine whether they were frozen or unfrozen. As expected with rising summer temperatures, the number of unfrozen glacial lakes is increasing.
The agency reported that 40 lakes have now been observed to be unfrozen compared to 24 lakes reported two weeks earlier, indicating accelerated seasonal melting. However, the current assessment also indicated that most unfrozen lakes are still at a safe distance from the stream channel.
