Key Takeaways
- WTO reports strengthening global trade in goods from June.
- September barometer reading of 102 indicates growth above trend.
- Strong demand for electronic components offsets negative effects of trade tensions.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported that global trade in goods has shown resilience despite geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, with a September barometer reading of 102, up from 101.7 in June. This improvement suggests that merchandise flows are growing above the baseline trend, according to the WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer, which tracks export orders, air freight, container shipping, automotive products, raw materials, and electronic components.
The WTO, based in Geneva, publishes its barometer four times a year, with readings above 100 indicating growth above the baseline trend of 100. The current reading reflects a continued upward trend in global trade, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policy developments.
While the WTO had forecast a slowdown in world trade in goods to 1.9% this year, from 4.6% in 2025, strong demand for electronic components, particularly tied to investments in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure, is helping to offset the negative effects of trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors include the imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies.
However, the WTO warns that trade growth remains uneven across sectors and regions, and that geopolitical and policy-related risks continue to cloud the outlook. These risks include ongoing disruptions to supply chains, shipping routes, and transport costs, which could potentially decelerate trade growth even further.
The report highlights the importance of continued monitoring of these factors to ensure the sustained recovery of global trade. The WTO’s findings underscore the need for a balanced approach to trade policies and the importance of maintaining open and stable trade routes to support global economic recovery.
