Key Takeaways
- German voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin will cast ballots on Sunday.
- The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to continue making gains.
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz's approval ratings have dropped to as low as 14%.
German voters will head to the polls on Sunday in two state elections, with the results likely to put further pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin follow a series of setbacks for Merz, including the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) winning an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt in September.
The AfD, which advocates for tough action on immigration, energy ties with Russia, and leaving the euro, has transformed from a fringe movement to the country's most popular party in just over a decade. Despite opinion polls suggesting the AfD may not repeat its victory in Saxony-Anhalt, the party's continued success in regional elections has raised questions about the 'firewall' strategy, under which other parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with it.
Merz, who was elected last year on a promise of ambitious reforms to return Germany’s stagnant economy to growth, has struggled to win over skeptical voters. His approval ratings have plunged to as low as 14%, according to the latest polls. The CDU, his own conservative Christian Democratic Union party, has rallied behind him, aware that replacing the chancellor would leave any successor facing the same deep economic problems.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is expected to suffer its worst-ever election result, with the most recent opinion poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Friday putting it at just 6%. The party faces the risk of failing to clear the minimum threshold to enter the state parliament. In Berlin, the CDU is also under pressure, with voters focusing on issues such as soaring energy and housing costs.
Surging fuel prices, particularly felt in a state like Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where many rely on cars for transport, have put pressure on Merz to agree relief measures with his Social Democrat coalition partners. On Friday, he presented a relief package that included tax cuts on gas and diesel. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen, given the ongoing economic challenges.
The results of the upcoming elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin are expected to underscore the AfD's significant advances and raise further doubts about Merz's ability to lead. The chancellor's government has been marred by a series of gaffes and communication missteps, compounding resentment over unpopular pension, tax, and healthcare reforms.
For the moment, senior figures in the CDU have rallied behind Merz, aware that replacing the chancellor would be difficult on constitutional grounds. However, disillusionment with his government has hung over the campaigns, with voters in both states focusing on the pressing issues of energy and housing costs. The outcome of these elections will be closely watched as they could shape the future of German politics and the chancellor's tenure.
