Pakistan has developed closer diplomatic and economic engagement with the Trump administration, but a major political setback for President Donald Trump following the November 3 midterm elections could alter that trajectory. While Democrats will not replace Trump or directly control his foreign policy decisions, their control of Congress will give them greater authority to block legislation and challenge some of his policy priorities.
One significant implication concerns Pakistan’s role in mediating the US-Iran war. Pakistan has been involved in diplomatic efforts to end the war, working alongside regional partners, and even helped make possible the historic, albeit temporary, Islamabad Accords. Trump’s midterm losses could increase domestic political pressure on his administration to find a diplomatic solution. Vice President JD Vance argued in a post following the election that the war was the primary reason Republicans lost, citing polling that showed former Trump voters wanted the conflict to end. This pressure could strengthen Islamabad’s position as an intermediary.
The energy situation remains a critical factor for Pakistan. Currently, petrol stands at Rs. 362 per litre and high-speed diesel stands at Rs. 388 per litre, with gas load management already underway due to limited and expensive LNG supply. While a war escalation could push prices higher, an apparently weak Trump administration facing pressure to end the war could result in a reduction in regional tensions and more predictable energy flows, potentially easing international prices for Pakistan.
Regarding technology, a growing anti-AI backlash in the United States could impact Pakistan. An October 2026 poll found that 57 percent of Americans believe AI is bad for society. If domestic opposition slows AI build-out in America, researchers and entrepreneurs might look for opportunities elsewhere, potentially allowing members of the Pakistani diaspora to return and establish startups. Furthermore, a democratically controlled Congress may push for more regulations, increasing the cost of closed AI models from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. This could lead Pakistan to rely more on open-source models to develop locally customized versions in Urdu and regional languages.
