Key Takeaways
- Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to decline by 4 percent year-on-year in July 2026.
- Heavy monsoon rains have disrupted fertilizer application in major crop-growing regions.
- Industry inventories are projected to rise, with EFERT holding the largest stockpile.
Pakistan’s urea sales are set for a significant drop, according to a research report by Topline Securities. The expected decline of 4 percent year-on-year in July 2026 is attributed primarily to heavy monsoon rains that have disrupted fertilizer application across major crop-growing regions.
The disruption has led to a projected increase in industry inventories, with the total stock rising to 930,000 tons from 840,000 tons in June. This rise is particularly notable for Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), which is expected to hold the largest inventory at 731,000 tons.
Despite the monthly slowdown, cumulative urea sales for the first seven months of 2026 are projected to reach 3.1 million tons, a 5 percent increase from the same period last year. However, individual company performances vary; FFC’s July sales are estimated at 269,000 tons, down 1 percent compared with the previous year.
Engro Fertilizers is expected to see a more substantial decline in its July urea sales by 19 percent to 167,000 tons. In contrast, Fatima Group’s sales are forecasted to rise threefold to 127,000 tons, marking the strongest growth among major players.
The overall outlook for the industry remains cautiously optimistic as Topline Securities expects urea sales to remain stable in the coming months. This stability is anticipated due to seasonal demand and improved farm incomes driven by higher crop prices.
Meanwhile, total DAP (diammonium phosphate) sales are expected to fall 13 percent year-on-year to 93,000 tons in July, although they are projected to almost double from June levels. Cumulative DAP sales for the first seven months of the year are estimated at 577,000 tons, up 3 percent from a year earlier.
Closing inventories for DAP are expected to stand at 243,000 tons, indicating a balanced market despite the decline in sales. The report suggests that while there is a downturn in urea sales, other fertilizers like DAP may see an uptick due to changing agricultural practices and demand patterns.
