Key Takeaways
- Two tankers sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday amid heightened tensions.
- Shipping industry sources report vessels are switching off public AIS tracking transponders.
- Iranian armed forces launched attacks on U.S. military infrastructure in response to U.S. strikes.
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was at a near standstill on Thursday, according to data and sources from Kpler and LSEG ship tracking. Just two tankers had transited the strait by early hours of Thursday, including the crude supertanker Berg 1, which had loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island and is subject to U.S. sanctions.
The Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker Well Sail also transited the strait, according to Kpler analysis. Its previous loading destination was near Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, as per LSEG ship tracking data.
Shipping industry sources reported that vessels were increasingly switching off their public AIS tracking transponders, making it harder to monitor all ships crossing the strait. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, stated, 'Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran.'
The latest escalation in the four-month conflict began earlier this week with attacks on three tankers in the strait that the U.S. blamed on Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy said on Thursday that U.S. attacks on Iran and intervention in redirecting shipping were disrupting the strait's gradual reopening, warning of a 'crushing response' to any further U.S. intervention.
The Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global oil supplies before the conflict erupted on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. Daily traffic in the past two weeks had risen to its highest levels since the war's outbreak, averaging 40 ships transiting the strait, which was still far off the pre-conflict average of 125 to 140 daily sailings.
Some war underwriters have advised shipping companies to pause voyages through the strait while others are reviewing their policy terms after renewed vessel attacks. The insurance industry sources told Reuters that the Hormuz reopening story looks more fragile after the latest escalation.
One of the three vessels hit this week, the Marshall Islands-flagged Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat, remains stranded and awaiting salvage operations off Oman after a projectile strike late on Tuesday sparked a fire in its engine room. Despite earlier fears of an explosion, industry sources said that risk was low for now and its cargo of liquefied natural gas appeared secure.
The ship registry of the Marshall Islands, one of the world's top flag states, told Reuters there were no reported injuries or environmental impacts as a result of the incident involving the Al Rekayyat.
'Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran.'
Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy
