Key Takeaways
- A powerful El Nino could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity.
- The number of food-insecure people in Southern Africa is expected to increase by nearly 75%.
- Funding cuts are hampering efforts to monitor the developing crisis.
A strong El Nino weather event could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity across vulnerable regions, according to a report from the World Food Programme (WFP).
The UN agency estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise by almost 49 million to a total of 274 million, marking a 22% increase relative to the baseline population already experiencing crisis-level food insecurity.
Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with the number of food-insecure people set to increase by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa.
Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute food insecurity due to El Nino’s impact on rainfall patterns and agricultural production.
While past El Nino events have not typically triggered major global food price spikes, regional shortages and higher prices could worsen food access for vulnerable households. The WFP warns that conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop losses could put further upward pressure on prices.
Funding cuts from US and European donors in 2025 are hampering efforts to monitor the developing crisis. Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, described a growing drought of food-security data used to assess the impact of El Nino.
WFP conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024 compared with about 800,000 in 2025, while data collection has fallen further this year due to funding restrictions. Bauer emphasized that at a time when there is a risk like an El Nino, high-frequency data collection is crucial for identifying emerging food crises quickly.
Current forecasts point to rainfall deficits in parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America, and the Caribbean, while flood risks could rise in Somalia and neighbouring areas. Significant impacts are also projected across South and Southeast Asia, where drought risks, uneven monsoons, and localised flooding could disrupt agricultural production.
The WFP stresses that forecasts remain uncertain and that impacts will vary across regions.
These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger.
Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service
