Key Takeaways
- US and Iranian negotiators in New York discuss a phased path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran seeks relief from US economic blockade, while Washington aims for free passage.
- A deal before US midterms could ease tensions and benefit Trump politically.
US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased approach to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil supply route, according to sources close to the talks.
The strait has become the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the nearly seven-month US-Iran conflict, with Iran seeking relief from the US blockade and Washington aiming for free passage.
A senior Iranian official stated that the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.
One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages, with the first step being to end the blockade and reopen Hormuz, according to the official.
The deal would involve US President Donald Trump accepting another temporary fix, after an earlier understanding collapsed in July.
A senior European official noted that the Iranians have a very long list of demands, while a former US negotiator Dennis Ross sees only a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote on November 3.
A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices, and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices.
Iran’s chances of gaining economic relief may be greater while Trump still has a greater political incentive to strike a bargain.
After the midterms, Ross said, Trump may face fewer constraints and be more willing to intensify pressure or consider military options.
The leverage that brought Washington and Tehran back to negotiations could also make compromise harder, with Washington controlling the pressure hurting Tehran and Tehran controlling access to a critical energy chokepoint.
One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. The first would be to end the blockade and reopen Hormuz.
A senior Iranian official, Not specified
The blockade is what’s really squeezing the Iranians. It’s strangling them.
Dennis Ross, Former US negotiator
