Key Takeaways
- Chicago wheat futures decline for fourth consecutive week.
- Traders hopeful for renewed Black Sea grain exports.
- US dollar strength makes US crops less competitive globally.
Chicago wheat futures fell on Friday, marking their fourth consecutive weekly decline. The most-traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 2.1% at $6.92-1/2 a bushel at 0324 GMT, trading at its lowest levels in a month.
The decline in wheat prices was driven by hopes for a revival of exports from the Black Sea region, where Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other’s grain shipments have hampered exports and lifted global prices. Turkey is stepping up efforts to re-establish the Black Sea grain export corridor.
The US dollar’s gains, after rising sharply against a basket of major peers, also contributed to the decline. A stronger US dollar makes US crops less competitive globally, affecting wheat prices.
Corn and soybean futures also moved lower, with corn headed for a weekly fall. The most-traded CBOT soybeans lost 0.9% to $13.05-1/2 a bushel but were up 0.2% from last week’s close. Corn slipped 1.4% to $5.20 a bushel, its lowest in a month, and was down 1.4% for the week.
Traders are closely watching the US-China summit, hoping for Chinese commitments to buy US agricultural goods. StoneX analyst Bevan Everett noted that soybeans and corn are 'poised to react to the results of the visit of President Xi Jinping.'
Yelena Tyurina, chief analyst at the Russian Grain Union, estimated that Russia would export 1 million metric tons of wheat in September compared to 5.7 million tons in September 2025. This reduction in exports has not yet caused an increase in US export business, according to StoneX analyst Bevan Everett.
CBOT wheat prices on the most-traded contract’s continuous series fell below their 50-day moving average for the first time since July, a bearish technical signal. This suggests continued downward pressure on wheat prices in the near term.
Soybean processors in the western US Midwest are offering hefty premiums for immediate deliveries as persistent rains delay the early harvest. This indicates that despite the decline in wheat prices, other agricultural commodities are still facing challenges.
