Key Takeaways
- Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific reached an all-time high in September.
- This El Nino is expected to make 2026 the hottest year on record.
- Experts warn the combined effect of El Nino and climate change could lead to record-breaking temperatures.
An intensifying El Nino pattern has set a new all-time temperature high in a key Pacific zone, according to the EU’s climate monitor. Sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region reached 29.70 degrees Celsius in September, surpassing previous records from 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that this year’s El Nino, which emerged in June, is 'very exceptional.' However, it is too early to determine if it is the strongest ever observed. Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated, 'This very large event today is happening in a much warmer climate.'
As the El Nino phenomenon strengthens, global average sea surface temperatures hit a record 21.05 degrees Celsius for September, topping the previous high of 20.92 for the same month in 2023. This warming phase of the natural climate cycle can trigger weather changes, increasing the risk of drought and flooding, and exacerbating man-made global warming.
Experts predict that the combined effect of this El Nino and human-induced climate change could make 2027 the hottest year on record. However, Buontempo noted that even 2026 could be a record-breaker, saying, 'If we follow the pattern we have seen in the past, we may have a record-breaking 2026, followed by a record-breaking 2027.'
The world experienced its second-hottest September ever observed, with surface air temperatures averaging 16.27 degrees Celsius. This comes after a record-breaking August, further indicating the potential for a significant temperature increase in the coming months.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service has adopted a new index to account for the warming of tropical oceans, suggesting that the current event is not yet stronger than past ones. Buontempo emphasized, 'It’s a very large event even in that metric.'
While the exact strength of this El Nino remains to be seen, the impact of the phenomenon combined with ongoing climate change is expected to have significant consequences for global temperatures. The world is closely watching the developments as the El Nino event continues to unfold.
The EU’s climate monitor is urging caution and continued monitoring of the situation, as the full impact of this El Nino is yet to be fully realized. As the world prepares for potentially record-breaking temperatures, the focus remains on understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change.
This very large event today is happening in a much warmer climate.
Carlo Buontempo, Director, Copernicus Climate Change Service
If we follow the pattern we have seen in the past, we may have a record-breaking 2026, followed by a record-breaking 2027.
Carlo Buontempo, Director, Copernicus Climate Change Service
