Key Takeaways
- El Nino will intensify and peak in December, potentially one of the strongest since 1950.
- The phenomenon will bring higher temperatures and shift rainfall patterns globally.
- Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels.
The United Nations has warned that El Nino, a naturally occurring weather phenomenon, will intensify and peak in December, potentially among the strongest since 1950.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) stated that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026, reflecting the strengthening of the El Nino event.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo explained that El Nino does not add new heat to the planet but releases heat stored in the ocean, which is currently the warmest ever measured.
The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific increased from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August, with a forecast for October-November-December to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal, surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C set in 2015-2016.
El Nino typically peaks between November and February, but the resulting spike in temperatures often comes later. This El Nino is already affecting some regions, including Central America, where animals and crops are dying from drought.
The WMO's forecast is based on consensus across 13 leading national and international meteorological centres, indicating a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027.
The phenomenon is expected to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions.
El Nino and La Nina conditions oscillate, with neutral conditions in between. The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
